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H1N1 seen lying low, then rising again in Europe

Reuters (H1N1Seen Lying Low) nGDn39ZvfnEJ

March 8, 2010

By Kate Kelland

LONDON (Reuters) – Europe is unlikely to see another wave of pandemic H1N1 flu soon but local epidemics are likely as winter returns to the Northern hemisphere, health officials said on Monday.

The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said the H1N1 swine flu virus would probably spread at low levels during 2010’s spring and summer, and be the dominant and threatening strain in the winter flu season.

“It seems unlikely that there will be another spring/summer pandemic wave in Europe unless there are significant unrecognized uninfected populations or the virus changes and becomes more transmissible,” the ECDC, which monitors disease in the European Union, said in its latest flu risk assessment.

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